Mark Roy – My Year Ahead

During the Christmas break I had time to dabble in a little ‘trend spotting’, which I’ve been assured is very now. According to www.trendspotting.com staying abreast of the latest consumer trends will not only make me feel good (I’m still waiting) it should enable me to “dream up profitable new goods, services and experiences” with and on behalf of our customers. In theory this is good news for us all but what happens if I get it wrong and my predictions for this year haunt me throughout 2011?!

Without further ado here are my financial predictions for 2010.
Q1 Below average
Q2 Bad
Q3 Slow but recovering
Q4 Best of the year

Joking aside these are tricky times and it’s hard not to embrace an air of hesitance when trying to imagine where we’ll be next week let alone at the end of Q3. This is reflected in the prevailing uncertainty that exists within the market place in spite of the fact that we technically came out of recession during Q4 of 2009. The upcoming election is of course partly to blame for this however, it is also an easy excuse for companies to delay payment, which ultimately benefits no one. As usual it’s the banks that hold the real trump cards when it comes to businesses succeeding and until they start lending, liquidity and confidence will NOT return. 2010 should therefore be a consolidation year where survivors tread cautiously but without the paralysing trepidation seen at the end of 09.

In terms of legislation it’s difficult to imagine that anything will actually change in 2010 as it’s likely that the incoming government will embrace many of the issues that have been mooted by the incumbent Labour Party. Assuming the more business focused Tory Party take the reigns, the constraints on the public purse strings will limit the ability of the new regime to create any drastic legislative U Turns even if they wanted to.

For DM 2010 promises to be our toughest year yet and many companies will struggle to come to terms with the ‘new wave’ of lower volume and higher frequency campaigns! I also suspect that per capita prices will start to grow for data as companies who have been driving price down will have disappeared and clients will be prepared to pay that little bit more for solutions that work. As the low volume, high frequency approach is tailored towards giving consumers a choice it is therefore essential to forge respectful relationships with consumer that last beyond Valentines Day.

Although digital hasn’t quite delivered us to the Promised Land (not surprisingly) it has firmly established itself as a core component within DM contact strategy and companies wishing to succeed in this somewhat "egg-shell" year will have to both embrace channel integration and make it deliver. I fully expect to see Lead Generation/Marketing making huge strides to satisfy both parties with consumers getting what they want and companies getting cost effective prospects.

Without wanting to bore you to tears I think it’s time to turn my attention to some blatant guess work that might just come to pass. The Tories will win the election and have at least a 10% majority. Barack Obama's ratings will exceed 65% as his health bill passes and beds in. Inflation will peak at 2.6 million in Q2. Interest rates will be 2% at the end of the year. Europe will win the Ryder cup, but it will be the closest competition for years.

Wishing you a prosperous year ahead.

Mark Roy
CEO of The REaD Group plc